Modi 3.0
“We should take setbacks in our stride. Small fluctuations should not deter us…,” said Narendra Modi a day after India’s general election results gave the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) enough seats to form a central government. Results of the keenly-watched elections for 543 Lok Sabha seats (Lower House of Parliament) were announced on June 4 after seven phases concluded on June 1.
On June 7 Modi was unanimously elected NDA leader and will lead a coalition government in India for next five years.
He will be sworn in as Prime Minister of India for a third consecutive term on Sunday, June 9 matching the record of Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first premier.
Even as the BJP-led alliance braces for a third consecutive term, the votes did not give them an outright majority like they secured in the previous two elections.
A Shock Result
In 2014, Modi’s BJP won a clear majority of 282. In 2019 it bagged a comfortable 303 seats to form the government on its own.
The 2024 Lok Sabha poll results came as a shocker. The BJP managed to win only 240 seats, falling short of the 272 seats needed; however, the NDA alliance secured 293 seats to secure a majority.
This year the BJP faced its biggest setback in Uttar Pradesh which holds the highest number of seats (80) in the Lok Sabha. In 2019 they won 62 seats but only secured 36 in 2024, with the Samajwadi Party leading with 36 and Congress with 6. The BJP’s performance was equally disappointing in Maharashtra, West Bengal, Karnataka, and Rajasthan.
‘400 paar’ not to be
Until the results were announced on June 4, the BJP was confident of surpassing 400 seats with the NDA alliance.
BJP leaders were of the belief that, “Phir ek baar Modi Sarkar (once again it will be Modi government in India)” and “Abki baar 400 paar (this time victory over 400 seats).”
Instead the opposition bloc, the INDI alliance won 234 Lok Sabha seats with the Congress party securing 99 of them.
Three days after the election results, an independent lawmaker joined the Congress party, increasing the party’s seat share in the lower house of the parliament to 100.
Interestingly, the last time the Congress got a triple-digit score was in 2009 when it won 206 seats. In 2014 it won a mere 42 seats and bagged 52 in 2019.
Modi’s reaction
Modi’s first reaction after the poll results was to thank the Indian people for placing their faith in the NDA.
“I bow to the Janata Janardan for this affection and assure them that we will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people,” he said.
Addressing the nation from the BJP office in the national capital, Modi added, “I am indebted to all Indians. The citizens of India have affirmed their faith in the BJP and the NDA once again. Today’s victory is the victory of the world’s biggest democracy.”
The caste equation
Election experts have been debating the reasons for BJP’s sub-par performance. The caste system plays a pivotal role in India and analyses say that caste could have been a contributing factor to the BJP’s lackluster performance in Uttar Pradesh.
Assessments indicate that the non-Yadav OBC vote bank dropped the BJP and non-Jatav Dalit voters moved their support to the INDIA bloc. Khatik and Kurmi votes among the non-Yadav OBCs largely went to the opposition.
It also appears that the Ram Mandir campaign did not resonate with voters with the BJP losing the Faizabad seat, where Ayodhya is situated.
The Opposition charge
During political campaigning, opposition leaders claimed the “Indian Constitution will be changed,” paving the way for divided support that the BJP could not counter to convince voters otherwise.
At election rallies, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was seen holding a Constitution booklet, alleging the BJP would make changes to the Constitution if it came to power.
The RSS factor
Other factors affecting the Modi-led party’s poor report card may have included the lack of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) volunteers and demoralized BJP grassroots workers. Local media reports highlighted that the RSS, BJP’s ideological parent, was not involved in the 2024 elections as they were in the 2014 and 2019 general polls.
It was rumored that the RSS was upset with BJP national president JP Nadda’s remark during the polls when he stated, “In the beginning, we would have been less capable, smaller and needed the RSS. Today, we have grown and we are capable. The BJP runs itself. That’s the difference.”
The Agniveer scheme
The BJP’s election manifesto did not mention tackling inflation and unemployment which could have contributed to the party’s poor performance.
Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a Congress leader and a former chief minister of Haryana stated that the BJP failed to address key issues like the plight of farmers,’ unemployment, law and order, and inflation.
Meanwhile, a host of pundits pointed out that the BJP didn’t pay attention to the anger over the short-tenure Agnipath scheme.
The Agnipath scheme unveiled by the Modi government in 2022 was a short-service program for defense personnel. It involved recruiting youth in the 17.5-21 age bracket as soldiers for four years. It aimed to modernize the military, create a youthful and agile profile, and reduce long-term financial burdens associated with pensions and other benefits.
Rural youth expressed discontent over the military recruitment scheme with many calling the four-year tenure requirement a gross injustice.
Defectors failed to deliver
Ahead of the election, several members from the Congress and other parties joined the BJP but many defectors faltered in Himachal Pradesh and Punjab. In Himachal, four of six defectors lost, including Ravneet Bittu, ex-AAP’s Sushil Rinku; clearly voters were unhappy with the defections and cast them out.
Voter fatigue
Many states reported poor voter turnout with the intense heat deterring participation at the polls. Voter exhaustion was also seen as a key factor in the BJP’s loss. To many experts, the outcome of the Lok Sabha election was a foregone conclusion.
It’s not the first time that a coalition government will lead India. The country has a history of chaotic coalition governments, with those in the early 1990s and 2000s playing a key role in implementing economic reforms.
This time round the BJP will have to depend on allies and will need to adopt a more consultative, deliberative approach to move the country forward.
