A Reason for Victory
The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is extremely tight as the presidential campaign heads into the last few weeks of the 2024 election. One of them must ace the electoral college math to win the Presidency. It will come down to these 7 battleground states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
What could make a significant difference in the election outcome is a powerful voting bloc – the 1.75 million Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders who reside in these swing states and who are eligible to vote – they could represent the margin of victory for either party.
“I prefer actually, instead of saying that we are the margin of victory, to saying now that we are the reason for victory,” says Shekar Narasimhan, Chairman and Founder of the AAPI Victory Fund at an October 4 Ethnic Media Services briefing titled “All Eyes on AAPI Voters in Swing States” where advocates and experts representing AAPI communities discussed mobilization and Get Out the Vote efforts in the battleground states.
The issues that matter for Indian Americans in these swing states are “the economy, immigration, gun violence prevention, reproductive freedom, and education,” says Harini Krishnan, South Asians for Harris Co-National Director, pointing out that people living in red states with abortion bans and open carry “seem to be more worried about abortion and gun violence as top of mind issues.”
The Asian American Vote
Asian Americans are the fastest-growing demographic that is becoming eligible to vote. In 2020; about 65% came out to vote and in crucial battleground states, roughly one out of four AANHPIs were voting for the first time.
According to AAPI Data, the percentage of Asian Americans who identify as Independents has grown to 31 percent. Christine Chen, President of APIAVote says that Democrats are still winning over the Asian American voters at 42% while 22% of AAPI voters identify as Republican.
So the big bloc of Independent AAPI voters is up for grabs by any party that actively engages with the community, suggests Republican strategist Rina Shah.
The new survey from AAPI Data and APIAVote also finds that around 6 in 10 AAPI voters have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Harris while 3 in 10 AAPI voters have a positive view of Trump.
Among Indian Americans, about 7 in 10 adults see Harris as the candidate who better represents their background and culture. But says Shah, while many Republicans acknowledge their dissatisfaction with Trump at the top of the ticket they might still stick with their party for down-ballot races.
How will women & youth vote?
A new poll from the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics now shows Harris with a 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters ages 18 to 29. This is important because in the last election, young voters had a decisive role in several key swing states. Nationwide, they voted for Biden by a 24-point margin. What is also interesting is that more young Democrats say they will definitely vote this fall, compared to young Republicans.
“Overall women are breaking for Kamala and it’s even more prominent in the South Asian context. Women tend to vote less than men in AAPI communities but we think that will reverse in 2024,” predicts Narasimhan.
Chen has seen a similar trend in her polling data with an increase in voter registration of 18 to 34-year-olds and women.
Pennysylvania – the multilingual epicenter of the AAPI vote
Mohan Seshadri, executive director of the Asian Pacific Islander Political Alliance (API PA) calls Pennsylvania “the battleground of battlegrounds;” 700,000 Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders call Pennsylvania home.
When API PA launched in 2020, they doubled the Asian American vote in Pennsylvania, says Seshadri. “In 2022 we ran a year-long voter contact program, the largest in the country. And we’re successful not just in electing the Governor and Senator Federman, but also in flipping the Pennsylvania State House along the way.”
This year, they are going to run the largest Asian American voter contact program in the country – knock on 500,000 doors and make 5 million phone calls in 22 languages.
They aim to meet every single member of the Asian American community where they are, ensure they know how to vote in this critical election, and become familiar with which candidates up and down the ballot will listen to and fight for them. “Power and justice for our communities, all across places where our Asian American community is the margin of victory,” adds Seshadri.
This structured and continued outreach program has become critical after a 2024 Asian American Voter Survey showed that each party had contacted less than 42% of AANHPI voters.
What do desis in Pennsylvania care about?
Jayashree Bhaskar is a volunteer leader with They See Blue in Pennsylvania which works to mobilize South Asian American voters to elect Democrats across the country. Bhasker says that Indian American voters care mostly about the cost of living and immigration.Â
Indian Americans perceive that refugees are being prioritized in the immigration pipeline over families who follow the legal path; they simply want a fair deal for their family members who have followed the rules.
Bensalem, PA in Bucks County, a very purple, swing district, has a higher than national average of desi GOP voters. Small business owners there tend to align with the GOP, explains Bhaskar, compared to suburban and professional desis who are in accord with the DNC.
The prospect of anti-immigrant sentiment concerned one voter in Bensalem who said, “You and I (who immigrated from India as adults) can think about going back to India if anti-immigrant feeling in the US under Trump takes off. Our children, however, born here, have nowhere else to go. That’s why we have to fight to defeat Trump.”
Bhaskar explained that right-leaning voters in desi communities in Bensalem were persuaded by disinformation shared on WhatsApp “that Kamala Harris is funded by George Soros; she never claims to be of Indian origin, just black. She is anti-Hindu/anti-India. They believe that Trump is good for India/Hindus.”
Georgia on my mind
In 2020, President Joe Biden won Georgia by less than 12,000 votes. The number of AAPIs who voted in 2020 in Georgia was over 142,000, and 26% were first-time voters, says Chen. “If you do the math, that’s about 39,000 voters, three times the margin of victory.”
For Indian Americans in Georgia, gun violence and climate change are key concerns, says Amod Sureka, a volunteer leader with They See Blue in Atlanta, who has been canvassing on the ground in Georgia.
Aside from safety and security, Sureka warns that voters “are concerned with how unhinged Donald Trump is. I think that people recognize that the Biden years have been a lot calmer than the Trump years (even excluding the pandemic). The uncertainty and constant noise of the Trump years is not something that a lot of Indian Americans want to return to.” Younger voters in the state appear to be more excited about Democrats.
However, Indian Americans who lean Republican feel that Trump will be better for India. “This coincides with Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric that they share,” says Sureka. Indian American constituents have also expressed concern about crime and more recently, about Haitian immigrants, following Trump’s comments in the presidential debate.
Wealthy desis in Georgia are more inclined to vote for a Republican administration they believe will lower taxes. To counter this perception, organizations like South Asians for Harris, have been sharing information to explain why taxes on 95% of the population will decrease with the Harris Walz administration and people will pay more taxes if Trump is reinstated in 2025.Â
Michigan’s fast-growing desi population
Ratna Rao has been working on getting out the vote in Michigan since 2004. She now leads a team of desi volunteers for South Asians of Michigan Organizing for Serious Action(SAMOSA), a chapter of They See Blue.
Michigan has a higher percentage of Muslim voters than other states, and the Palestine-Israel conflict has played out much more visibly here. Rao says that it has been difficult to talk to South Asian Muslims this election cycle because of their outrage over the strife in the Middle East.Â
Rao says the feedback from the Muslim community is, “I’m not going to vote for Kamala Harris.” She admits that in all her years of canvassing on the ground in Michigan, she has never before heard the South Asian Muslim community bring up the Israel-Palestine conflict as a concern. Â
Immigration is a pressing issue in Michigan, says Rao. Desis are frustrated by the perception that Democrats support illegal immigrants coming across the border instead of paying attention to legal immigrants who are working, in professional jobs, but who have to wait decades for their green cards on the long path to citizenship.
Narasimhan shared that Michigan has one of the fastest-growing, most diverse AAPI communities. “With the advent of AI robotics and the re-imagination of the car industry around EVs, there has really been a very significant influx, particularly of South Asians,” who are waiting in line for green cards and citizenship.”
The immigration question
“We have been sharing what the Biden-Harris administration has done at the border, and plans for a fairer immigration system that keeps us safe, helps our economy, clarifies the path to citizenship, and includes steps to clear immigration backlogs,” explains Krishnan.
But many desis aren’t aware that Indians are the third largest group of illegal immigrants to the US. A central question in the response to immigration concerns is how to “address these issues not just in a humane manner, but through public policy,” says Narasimhan.
“Our community wants people to show up, engage with them, talk to them about their issues, and care about them after the election. And so accountability after the election is equally important, says Narasimhan.
Rao concurs. Indian Americans tend to live in the suburbs and ask “Why are you not showing up in my suburbs? ….Don’t just go to Detroit.”Â
Voter Registration Resources:
Georgia: To register to vote. Mvp.sos.ga.gov
Michigan :To register to vote https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/RegisterVoter
Pennysylvania:
To register to vote: vote.pa.gov/register
To mail in your ballot: vote.pa.gov/applymailballot
California: https://iwillvote.com/
Voting resources for all states: https://www.southasiansforharris2024.org/vote2024
Want to volunteer to get out the Vote:
South Asians for Harris: https://linktr.ee/SAforHarris
They See Blue: https://www.theyseeblue.org/join
