The Campaigns & The Conventions
American presidential elections are nothing short of a sensational melodrama given the recent Republican convention that played out under the shadow of violence, and the events of last weekend as President Biden bowed out of his presidential campaign and endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.
On Friday, July 19th, at an Ethnic Media Services briefing, political veterans and an electoral access expert shared their opinions on the Democratic and Republican conventions, this year’s unique circumstances, and what the future holds. At the briefing, Bill Schneider, who served as CNN’s Senior Political Analyst from 1990 to 2009 predicted, “I predict Biden will withdraw before the election, Harris will be the nominee.” He was right.
Conventions-Then and Now
“Conventions are not what they used to be. The conventions today are more about celebrating a choice for President made by the party primaries and are not so much about choosing anymore,” said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, Retired Professor of the Practice of Public Policy Communication, Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California. She predicted that the possibility of Biden’s exit from the campaign would give the convention “the muscle it has not had for a very long time,” a projection borne out by the fact that Biden’s chosen nominee, Harris, has already clinched the support of the majority of Democratic delegates to secure the party’s nomination.
“The important thing is that we don’t know what the power of the convention is going to be this year,” said Jeffe about the process, “but it has diminished over American political history and what was a powerful mechanism for choosing a party’s nominee has become one long campaign act by the party’s candidate.”
However, she added that today’s conventions are really public relations events and pep rallies on television to get the party juiced up for the campaign. “Everything’s changed,” said Jeffe. “Now it’s done by the press because the press informs the ordinary voters.”
“What the Republican Convention proved is that Trump has taken complete possession of the Republican Party,” added Bill Schneider, Professor Emeritus, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University.
According to the experts, the influence of social media has changed how campaigns are implemented. Social media is the opposite of professional journalism they explained, without standards or checks on anything, because anybody with an opinion can put it on social media.
“This is the first democratic convention in the social media era. Trump has his own social media outlook and others follow. When Obama began the march toward the use of social media, it was mainly a fundraising tool, but it’s a whole lot more. The shift happened in 2020, and was accelerated by the pandemic,” said Schneider.
Electoral College Vs Popular Vote And Delegate Pledges
Jonathan Diaz, Director of Voting Advocacy and Partnerships, Campaign Legal Center explained the difference between superdelegates and pledged delegates. If for example, a candidate whom delegates have pledged to vote for withdraws from contention, then delegates are no longer bound by their pledges.
The experts also explained that the Electoral College was conceived to give smaller states a voice in choosing the President. This favored the election of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2016 said Bill Schneider, “because, without the electoral college, Trump would never have become the president.”
According to Bill Schneider, Republicans are committed to preserving the Electoral College. “To change the actual College, constitution change is needed, which is a very elaborate process that involves not just Congress but also the State legislatures dominated by Republicans, so nothing is likely to change in the electoral rules.”
“The electoral college is still democratic, although there are some little distortions, but it will remain democratic. It’s worth noting that the instances in which the popular vote and the Electoral College winner have been different are very few. Most times throughout history the candidate that wins the popular vote also wins the electoral college,” added Schneider.
Extreme Rhetoric
Schneider commented that American politics has become extreme in ways that haven’t been seen in a long time. He compared the recent Biden and Trump debate to the Obama-Romney debate in 2012, saying “It looks like two different universes in terms of the heat of the rhetoric.” The environment of disinformation has created an atmosphere that facilitates political violence added Schneider, referring to the attempted assassination of a U.S. presidential candidate.
He described the GOP as an isolationist party that has repudiated the traditional conservatism of Reagan and Bush. It’s “not really a conservative party” he added with a warning, “The First thing Trump will do when he becomes president is start rounding up illegal immigrants and deporting them. He intends to deport a million illegal immigrants in his first year.”
Voter Fraud
The panelists cautioned that Trump and his supporters were setting the stage for allegations of voter fraud in the upcoming elections. Though most voters trust the voting system, in 2020 the Trump camp believed that he lost because of election fraud.
This time said Diaz, ” They are not gonna wait until after the election. Trump and his allies have filed lawsuits in a number of swing states challenging the voter registration rules saying that states have thousands and thousands of illegally registered non-US citizens as voters. It’s a political strategy. His allies on the hill have been pushing new restrictive legislation.”
“If Trump loses, there’ll be another January sixth, and probably worse,” added Jeffe.
Trusting Local & Voter Safety
The panel reiterated the significance of local news sources and officials in building trust amongst the electorate. “We do take our voting cues from our friends and neighbors,” stated Diaz, given that the public was losing faith in mainstream media.
He also pointed out that voters were concerned about intimidation and harassment at the polls. “Unfortunately, there is a long history in this country of intimidation at the polls, threats of violence particularly targeting communities of color.” While this could motivate people to go and vote said Diaz, “People are reasonably afraid for their safety or from backlash in their communities. It’s hard to tell if somebody stays home because they’re afraid. These things are hard to measure in most places.” But, he added, election officials, law enforcement, and non-partisan election protection groups were prepared to respond to this issue.
The Diploma Divide
Diaz attributed the big realignment among the U.S. electorate to ‘the diploma divide.’ “Today one of the biggest differences in American politics is that voters with a college degree vote Democratic and voters without a college degree vote Republican.” He said that white working-class voters without a college degree were becoming more Republican. “These are the Archie Bunker voters and the reason they’re in the Republican party has less to do with economics than it does with cultural issues. They resent the power of the educated elite, now running the Democratic party.” In a new and dramatic change, Trump is also picking up support from working-class minorities. Yet on average, wealthier Americans support the Republican party more because they get tax cuts, the panel agreed.
The wealthy and well-educated voters are cross-pressured, said the panel. Their values pull them to vote Democratic, but their interests drive them to vote Republican. “That’s what’s happened in the suburbs: the wealthy white suburbs are now trending more Democratic, because of their values,” said Schneider.
Fears and Hopes
“If it’s a decisive election, a landslide for anybody, then we can say the system worked,” concluded Schneider. The problem is, even if it’s a decisive election for the Democrats, Trump is programmed to say if he doesn’t win, “the election is a fraud.”
He urged officials to shore up the election systems to make sure voters have opportunities to vote and their votes are counted fairly, especially in an era of heightened rhetoric and the environment of political violence
While law enforcement is responsible for controlling political violence Diaz expressed concern that in the current election cycle, Trump and his allies will make similar attempts to overturn the results if they’re not to his liking. “We are faced with a candidate and a party apparatus that has no concern for the foundations of American democracy, who is willing to tear the whole system down to win…never before have we seen a candidate so willing to completely dismantle the entire system of American Democracy. And this time the Federal judiciary is much more inclined to take his side.”
However, he was hopeful that public awareness and concern among regular everyday people about the health of elections have increased and would help to preserve and advance democracy. “That gives me hope that the fight is not over yet,” concluded Diaz.